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Prediction for CME (2025-12-06T21:12:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2025-12-06T21:12Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/43306/-1
CME Note: CME first seen to the E in STEREO A COR2 starting at 2025-12-06T20:53Z. The CME is also seen as a full halo in SOHO LASCO C2. The source of this CME is most likely an M8.1 flare from AR 14299 (N23E02) that peaked at 2025-12-06T20:39Z. The eruption signature can be seen across all wavelengths of GOES SUVI imagery and includes dimming, opening field lines, and an EUV wave. The eruption is also visible from the point of view of STEREO A EUV imagery.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2025-12-09T07:55Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2025-12-09T03:00Z (-6.0h, +6.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 80.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 6.0 - 8.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)
Prediction Method Note:

Met Office ENLIL settings.
ENLIL version: 2.7
Resolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)
Ambient settings: a3b2-sa1
WSA version: 4.5
GONG: mrzqs
Note that this arrival time forecast is based on the simulation but is then adjusted by a human-in-the-loop.

Please specify following CME input parameters.
Time at 21.5Rs boundary: 
Radial velocity (km/s): 1043
Longitude (deg): 8 N
Latitude (deg): 1 E
Half-angular width (deg): 33

Notes: 
Space weather advisor: SW & LG

Lead Time: 45.92 hour(s)
Difference: 4.92 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Met Office (Met Office) on 2025-12-07T10:00Z

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If you are looking for the official U.S. Government forecast for space weather, please go to NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (https://swpc.noaa.gov). This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.

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